PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

London (PRWEB) December 10, 2013

PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Summary

GlobalData has released its new Country report, "PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022". The type 2 diabetes market is mature and crowded with inexpensive generics. Despite being marked by a late-stage pipeline filled with me-too drugs, this market will undergo substantial growth between 2012 and 2022, more than doubling over this period. The main drivers of growth will be the dramatic increase in disease prevalence and physicians' efforts to delay disease progression and reduce the costly burden of diabetic complications through the use of combination therapies and novel branded drugs. In the emerging markets in particular, uptake of branded drugs will increase due to rapid economic growth. We anticipate that the type 2 diabetes market will not experience a fundamental shift in the classes of drugs that are preferred by physicians. Rapid uptake of drugs from the novel class of SGLT-2 inhibitors will occur; however, DPP-4 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists will continue dominating the noninsulin type 2 diabetes space. GLP-1 receptor agonists will experience the fastest growth of all classes (CAGR of 17%), due to their weight-loss effects and their novel once-weekly administration, which is preferable to the standard once- or twice-daily therapies.

The Essential Drugs List (EDL) in China facilitates the availability of significantly low-cost drugs (mostly generics), especially to the sizeable pool of poor patients, and thus currently, a very small patient share uses branded drugs. However, the growth in China will be fueled by a dramatic increase in prevalence and diagnosis as well as by increased access to health insurance, greater patient spending power and more aggressive treatment practice, leading to increased usage of newer agents such as the insulin analogs.

Scope

-Overview of T2D, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines

-Detailed information on the key drugs in China including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis

-Sales forecast for the top drugs in China from 2012-2022

-Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting China Type 2 Diabetes market.

Reasons to buy

-Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return

-Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for Type 2 Diabetes

-Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential

-Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance

-Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in China

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 5

1.1 List of Tables 8

1.2 List of Figures 11

2 Introduction 12

2.1 Catalyst 12

2.2 Related Reports 13

3 Disease Overview 16

3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 16

3.1.1 Etiology 16

3.1.2 Pathophysiology 17

3.1.3 Prognosis 18

3.1.4 Quality of Life 19

3.2 Symptoms 19

4 Disease Management 21

4.1 Treatment Overview 21

4.1.1 Diagnosis and Referrals 21

4.1.2 Treatment Guidelines 22

4.2 China 28

4.2.1 Diagnosis 28

4.2.2 Clinical Practice 28

5 Competitive Assessment 30

5.1 Overview 30

5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 31

5.3 Product Profiles - Major Brands 33

5.3.1 Metformin 33

5.3.2 Sulfonylureas (SUs) and Other Insulin Secretagogues 38

5.3.3 α-glucosidase Inhibitors (AGIs) 42

5.3.4 Thiazolidinediones (TZDs) 45

5.3.5 GLP-1 Receptor Agonists 49

5.3.6 DPP-4 Inhibitors 68

5.3.7 SGLT-2 Inhibitors 91

5.3.8 Insulin Formulations 99

6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 119

6.1 Overview 119

6.2 Unmet Needs 120

6.2.1 Drugs Providing Sustained Glycemic Control 120

6.2.2 Drugs with Non-Glycemic Benefits 121

6.2.3 Increased Patient Compliance 122

6.2.4 Drugs with Improved Side-Effect Profiles 123

6.2.5 Earlier Diagnosis 124

6.3 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 125

6.4 Oral Therapy with Sustainable Efficacy 126

6.5 Oral Therapy Offering Weight Loss 126

6.6 Cardio-metabolic Therapy 127

6.7 Promotion of Type 2 Diabetes Drugs in Emerging Markets 127

7 Pipeline Assessment 128

7.1 Overview 128

7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 129

7.2.1 Albiglutide 134

7.2.2 MK-3102 140

7.2.3 Tofogliflozin 143

7.2.4 Fasiglifam (TAK-875) 147

7.2.5 LY2409021 151

8 Market Outlook 155

8.1 China 155

8.1.1 Forecast 155

8.1.2 Key Events 159

8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 159

9 Appendix 162

9.1 Bibliography 162

9.2 Abbreviations 186

9.3 Methodology 189

9.4 Forecasting Methodology 189

9.4.1 Diagnosed Type 2 Patients 189

9.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 190

9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 190

9.4.4 General Pricing Assumptions 190

9.4.5 Individual Drug Assumptions 191

9.4.6 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 200

9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 201

9.6 About the Authors 203

9.6.1 Analyst II - CVMD 203

9.6.2 Therapy Director - CVMD and Infectious Disease 203

9.6.3 Global Head of Healthcare 204

9.7 About GlobalData 205

9.8 Disclaimer 205

List of Tables

Table 1: Symptoms of Type 2 Diabetes 20

Table 2: Diagnostic Tests and Typical Criteria for Type 2 Diabetes 21

Table 3: Treatment Guidelines for Type 2 Diabetes 23

Table 4: Most-Prescribed Drugs (Following Metformin and Sulfonylureas) for Type 2 Diabetes by Class in the Global Markets, 2012 26

Table 5: Leading Branded Treatments for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012 32

Table 6: Product Profile - Metformin 35

Table 7: Metformin SWOT Analysis, 2012 37

Table 8: First-Generation Sulfonylureas 39

Table 9: Second-Generation Sulfonylureas 39

Table 10: Product Profile - Sulfonylureas 40

Table 11: Sulfonylureas SWOT Analysis, 2012 41

Table 12: Product Profile - Acarbose 43

Table 13: AGIs SWOT Analysis, 2012 45

Table 14: Product Profile - Actos 47

Table 15: Actos SWOT Analysis, 2012 49

Table 16: GLP-1 Receptor Agonists 51

Table 17: Product Profile - Byetta 53

Table 18: Byetta SWOT Analysis, 2012 55

Table 19: Product Profile - Victoza 57

Table 20: Victoza SWOT Analysis, 2012 59

Table 21: Product Profile - Bydureon 61

Table 22: Bydureon SWOT Analysis, 2012 63

Table 23: Product Profile - Lyxumia 65

Table 24: Lyxumia SWOT Analysis, 2012 68

Table 25: Marketed DPP-4 Inhibitors 70

Table 26: Marketed DPP-4 Inhibitors in Combination with Other OADs 70

Table 27: Product Profile - Januvia 72

Table 28: Januvia SWOT Analysis, 2012 74

Table 29: Product Profile - Onglyza 76

Table 30: Onglyza SWOT Analysis, 2012 78

Table 31: Product Profile - Tradjenta 80

Table 32: Tradjenta SWOT Analysis, 2012 82

Table 33: Product Profile - Galvus 84

Table 34: Galvus SWOT Analysis, 2012 87

Table 35: Product Profile - Nesina 88

Table 36: Nesina SWOT Analysis, 2012 90

Table 37: Product Profile - Forxiga 93

Table 38: Forxiga SWOT Analysis, 2012 95

Table 39: Product Profile - Invokana 96

Table 40: Invokana SWOT Analysis, 2012 98

Table 41: Insulins - Overview and Comparison 100

Table 42: Insulin Formulations 100

Table 43: Product Profile - Humalog 101

Table 44: Humalog SWOT Analysis, 2012 103

Table 45: Product Profile - Lantus 104

Table 46: Lantus SWOT Analysis, 2012 107

Table 47: Product Profile - Levemir 108

Table 48: Levemir SWOT Analysis, 2012 110

Table 49: Product Profile - Novolog 111

Table 50: Novolog SWOT Analysis, 2012 112

Table 51: Product Profile - Apidra 113

Table 52: Apidra SWOT Analysis, 2012 115

Table 53: Product Profile - Tresiba 116

Table 54: Tresiba SWOT Analysis, 2012 118

Table 55: Overall Unmet Needs - Current Level of Attainment 119

Table 56: Clinical Unmet Needs - Gap Analysis, 2013 125

Table 57: Type 2 Diabetes - Phase Pipeline, 2012 131

Table 58: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012 132

Table 59: Product Profile - Albiglutide 135

Table 60: Albiglutide SWOT Analysis, 2013 139

Table 61: Product Profile - MK-3102 141

Table 62: MK-3102 SWOT Analysis, 2013 143

Table 63: Product Profile - Tofogliflozin 144

Table 64: Tofogliflozin SWOT Analysis, 2013 146

Table 65: Product Profile - Fasiglifam 148

Table 66: Fasiglifam SWOT Analysis, 2013 151

Table 67: Product Profile - LY2409021 152

Table 68: LY2409021 SWOT Analysis, 2013 154

Table 69: China Sales Forecasts ($ m) for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012-2022 156

Table 70: Key Events Impacting Sales for Type 2 Diabetes in China, 2012-2022 159

Table 71: Type 2 Diabetes Market - Drivers and Barriers in China, 2012 159

Table 72: Number of High-Prescribing Physicians Surveyed 20

List of Figures

Figure 1: ADA/EASD General Recommendations for Antihyperglycemic Therapy 25

Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Type 2 Diabetes, 2012-2022 133

Figure 3: Sales for Type 2 Diabetes in China by Drug Class, 2012-2022 158

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PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

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